WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — The number of measles cases in Broward County stands at nine with no indication that the outbreak will spread north.
However, a public health professor in Florida said the region and most of Florida is vulnerable to an outbreak that could potentially infect many more children.
WPTV investigative reporter Dave Bohman found out some counties, including Palm Beach, have a lower percentage of kids vaccinated against measles, mumps, and rubella, than Broward County, the center of the state’s measles outbreak.
That can spread quickly among the unvaccinated, and those with compromised immune systems.
Patrick Calizare made sure his 1-year-old son received the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine.
"When he’s going to school, that’s going to be a problem," Calizare said.
Dr. Karen Liller, a professor of public health at the University of South Florida, said it’s a potential problem in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast.
"It’s very important that people understand that measles is a very contagious disease," Liller said.
The professor said Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast are becoming more vulnerable. Numbers showed the percentage of area kindergartners vaccinated against measles at the beginning of the 2017-18 school year.
In five years, the numbers fell in Palm Beach and Indian River Counties, dropping below 90%. Indian River County had the largest fall off approaching 10%.
"When we see those numbers decrease, that puts people at risk," Liller said.
Liller gathered data for computer models to show the potential spread of a measles outbreak. One map predicts the outcome of a measles case that starting in Miami if the 2017-2018 vaccination levels remained constant.
Another map simulates an outbreak if measles vaccinations fell by 10%.
"To see that map covered with cases, compared to before, it’s amazing," Liller said. "Everyone who looks at that says, 'no, that can’t be right.'"
A simulation map with the 10% drop in measles shots predicted cases in Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties could infect up to 54,000 people in less than a year.
A simulation of an outbreak in Port St. Lucie with a 10% decline in vaccinated kids would leave St. Lucie and Martin Counties with 5,600 cases as opposed to 10 if vaccine levels stay constant.
When that simulation applied to the potential spread of a measles cases in Sebastian, computer models predicted 3,100 cases.
"Yes, that’s worst-case scenario, but do we even want to imagine that if you have thousands of cases how is the medical system," Liller said. "How is public health, how are we going to handle that?"
Liller said she wants public health officials to step up education. In her opinion, getting the vaccine carries very little risk. But not getting it, she said, puts the unvaccinated child, and people they interact with at great risk.
The number of parents having their kids vaccinated against the measles is on the decline.
