It was an early morning in July 2014, and a team from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution was preparing to brave the rough oceans off the coast of the Northeast. Hurricane Arthur was fast approaching, and satellite observations showed that it would be devastating.
The group wanted to capture data from the water in the storm’s predicted path by deploying equipment on the continental shelf. The continental shelf is the edge of a continent that lies beneath the ocean and eventually drops off into deeper ocean.
Gliders, storm buoys and floats are used to measure temperature and currents in the water so scientists can better predict the intensity of the storm. When the water is too hot, the storm gains strength and can be more destructive – an issue, according to experts, that is caused by global warming.
Over the last 13 years, water temperatures along the continental shelf have increased. While many factors could be playing a role in this trend – global warming is one – oceanographer Glen Gawarkiewicz, said these warmer temperatures are causing increasing severity in storms.
Gawarkiewicz, who works at Woods Hole and specializes in coastal waters, is working with a team in the North Atlantic analyzing the temperature and current of water in the continental shelf to better forecast hurricanes. He is using something called the cold pool to predict weather.
“During the summertime in the Northeast, there is a cold body of water underneath the warm surface,” Gawarkiewicz said. “When that mixes up, it removes energy from the storm. Getting the ocean mixing right is a very important part of improving hurricane forecasts.”
Hurricane Irene in August 2011 dropped from a category 1 hurricane to a tropical storm when it hit land in the U.S., although it caused 45 deaths and $7.3 billion in damage.
During the storm, surface water mixed with the deep water. The surface temperature of the water in the North Atlantic was 75 degrees, and the water below the surface was 50 degrees. After the storm passed, the surface temperature was 64 degrees. The 11 degree drop weakened the storm.
This is why New England rarely has coastal storms – the water is too cold to foster damaging weather condition.
Woods Hole, in Cape Cod, Mass., a nonprofit ocean research institution, is most famous for Bob Ballard’s discovery of the Titanic in the 1980s. Last year, the institute found something that would have a big impact on storm responses.
Gawarkiewicz’s research is revolutionary. His team, the Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region, or CINAR Tempest, has been studying the coastal ocean through something called rapid response.
Rapid response allows the team to situate equipment hours before a storm hits and get information immediately about the ocean.
Prior to his team’s research, all other data collections concerning the ocean during storms were done by looking at the deep ocean.
“This is a real game-changer,” Gawarkiewicz said. “This is absolutely transformative in that we are taking a regional approach to this rapid response. We are tracing the storm right after it forms to it’s journey to the beach.”
The data collection is done through the robotics revolution that has gained momentum over the last five years. The technology allows researchers to essentially see straight into the core of the storm and study how the water is mixing, without being there.
“I’ve been out when typhoons are around, having 21 foot seas, and having the two scientists say to you, ‘Uh, they are about to close the harbor because a container ship nearly overturned.’ That’s not a fun thing when you are on the ship,” he said.
The team is made up of researchers from five institutes: Woods Hole, the University of Maine, the University of Maryland, the Gulf of Maine Research Institute and Rutgers University. The group received $5.5 million of the $309 million disaster assistance fund given to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration after Hurricane Sandy for research and development in hurricane forecasting.
The research has found significant results, and Gawarkiewicz said he expects to find more in the coming years. All the team needs is more storms to study.
“I’ve worked on a lot of projects throughout my career, but I have to say I have never really worked on a project that is going to end up affecting so many people,” he said. “If we can improve the forecasts, then we can affect everybody along the coasts and the whole Northeast. I am more used to writing papers that 10 people read.”
Reach reporter Maren Machles at maren.machles@scripps.com or 202-408-1491. SHFWire stories are free to any news organization that gives the reporter a byline and credits the SHFWire. Like the Scripps Howard Foundation Wire interns on Facebook and follow us on Twitter and Instagram.
