A new CBS News/New York Times national poll shows Donald Trump up 19 points in the race for the Republican nomination for president in 2016. The poll shows Trump pulling in a whopping 35 percent of Republican primary voters with Texas Senator Ted Cruz well behind at 16 percent.
Trump also leads Ben Carson, who is polling at 13 percent, by more than double. Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s support was at nine percent, while the remaining GOP candidates, including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, pulled in four percent or less.
The poll was conducted both before and after Trump’s recent outrage-inducing, anti-Muslim comments, but mostly before, the New York Times reports.
At this point in the 2016 presidential election, do these numbers even matter? Some would argue they do not.
The Washington Post has created a fascinating blog that tallies where previous presidential front-runners stood on a particular date in past year’s elections. For example, on this December date in 2007, Hillary Clinton was also up 19 points on, at the time, the much lesser-known senator from Illinois, Barack Obama.
Clinton held her lead for another 65 days before America witnessed a come-from-behind surge that will surely go down as one of the most surprising in U.S. presidential campaign history.
On this day in 2011, Newt Gingrich held a 13 point lead over other GOP contenders, including eventual nominee Mitt Romney. Gingrich went on to hold that lead for almost another month.
At this point in -- 2004: Dean +8 2008 (D): H. Clinton +16.3 (R): Giuliani +5.2 2012: Gingrich +12.5 https://t.co/8pTnsrwBv0
— Past Frontrunners (@pastfrontrunner) December 10, 2015
Can Trump keep his first-place, far and away front-runner status going through the new year, or even until March and April 2016?
The Iowa caucus is now only about six weeks away. There, Trump leads among GOP candidates at 33 percent in the latest CNN/ORC poll.
It should be noted that 2012 Iowa winner, Rick Santorum, and 2008 Republican winner, Mike Huckabee, went on soon after to suspend their campaigns after less-than-stellar performances in New Hampshire and other state primaries.
The New Hampshire primary is now less than 60 days away. Polls in The Granite State show Trump capturing 32 percent among GOP voters compared to his next nearest competitor, Marco Rubio, at only 14 percent in the latest CNN/WMUR poll.
The South Carolina primary is then only a week later. There, Trump leads by a comfortable eight points in a Winthrop poll released Thursday.
12 other state primaries will be held on March 1, known as Super Tuesday. Florida then holds its primary two weeks later on Tuesday, March 15. It is there that Trump, at this point, dominates the junior senator and former governor in their own home state.
In the latest Florida primary poll, conducted by Florida Atlantic University’s Business and Economics Polling Initiative, Trump polls double the amount of his next nearest competitor. In the poll, conducted last month, Trump pulls 36 percent compared to Sen. Rubio’s 18 percent. Other Republican hopefuls polled even less: Ben Carson with 15 percent, Ted Cruz at 10 percent and the former governor capturing only nine percent of likely voters.
Some political pundits believe Trump’s recent anti-Muslim comments, in which he called for a "total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States”, will quickly bring the billionaire real estate mogul and presidential wannabe back down to more of a reality showing in the polls.
But a brand new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll also out today shows that 42 percent of all GOP voting adults support Trump’s ban on those of the Muslim faith entering the United States. Even 11 percent of Democratic voters support Trump’s Muslim-banning plan, according to the NBC/WSJ poll.
The divisive and controversial comments may only actually serve to springboard the part-time Palm Beacher in national polls. But if and when Trump slips like so many previous presidential hopefuls and temporary front-runners before, it remains to be seen how Trump might respond.
Who among current GOP contenders would rise to take his place? While Trump initially pledged he would not run as an independent candidate, in his most recent comments on the issue made to CNN's Don Lemon on Wednesday evening, Trump did not rule out the option saying, “we’ll see what happens” but reiterated he wants to run as a Republican.
With 333 days left until Election Day 2016, there's certainly still plenty of time on the Republican and Democratic sides for major shake ups in the field.
The Republican National Convention will be held in Cleveland, Ohio the third week of July. For Trump, the next three to four months are critical. Can the Trump reality show we’ve been seeing sustain itself through March or April of 2016?
For establishment GOPers who gasp and balk at the thought of Donald J. Trump representing their party as the nominee, the next 90 days are equally crucial. Just think about it. Trump really only needs to make it to March 15, assuming he wins New Hampshire, South Carolina, and a handful of other smaller state primaries before, hypothetically, dominating and winning the state of Florida.
If he can pull it off, it could most certainly be a long, hot summer for some Republicans even before they ever get to Cleveland in July.
