WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — A new poll released Tuesday indicates that former President Donald Trump still has a sizeable lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Florida.
The poll, conducted by the University of North Florida, asked likely Florida voters their choice for president, U.S. Senate and three proposed amendments to the Florida Constitution.
When a sample of 774 respondents was asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held today, 49% of the respondents said Trump while 42% indicated a vote for Harris.
Four percent said they would vote for another candidate and 6% were either undecided or refused to answer, according to the poll.
"It's not a huge surprise to see Trump ahead in his home state of Florida, which he won by three points in 2020," University of North Florida political science professor Dr. Michael Binder said. "With Harris just entering the race, enthusiasm amongst her supporters has livened up what was once thought to be an easy win for Trump in Florida."
These numbers come amid an increase in volunteers for Harris since her ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket after President Biden bowed out of the presidential race this month.
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Florida US Senate Poll Results
In the U.S. Senate race in Florida, the poll found the respondents favored Republican incumbent Rick Scott to keep his seat. The results showed Scott with a 47% to 43% lead over Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
Less than 1% said they would vote for someone else, and 10% said they didn't know or refused to answer.
"What's really interesting is that Trump has a couple point bigger lead than Rick Scott, who's only up by four — just inside the margin of error of this poll," Binder said. "Scott has a history of winning razor-thin statewide races in Florida, and in a state that has become significantly more red in the past six years, this could be another close race for Scott."
Poll Results For Proposed Amendments
In addition to federal offices, respondents were also asked how they would vote on three of the six proposed constitutional amendments on the November ballot.
Amendment 3, "Adult Personal Use of Marijuana," received support with 64% indicating a vote of "yes," and 31% who said they would vote "no." Respondents were also a bit more decisive, with just 5% undecided or refusing.
"It's not too clear yet how much money will be injected into the campaign against this amendment," Binder said. "If the opposing organizations ramp up their campaigns, we may see this number come down, depending how much cash is spent in opposition."
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Amendment 4, "Amendment to Limit Government Interference with Abortion," received support from the respondents with 69% indicating a vote of "yes," and just 23% who said "no." Eight percent said they did not know or refused to answer.
"Again, we have yet to see campaigns on either side of this really get moving," Binder said. "Factor in the highly contested and contentious financial impact statement recently added to the ballot summary, and I would expect to see support for this amendment drop before November."
When asked about Amendment 1, titled "Partisan Election of Members of District School Boards," 40% said they would vote "no," 37% said "yes," and 23% either did not know or refused to answer.
"The language in this ballot measure has some confusing 'legalese' which is likely adding to the uncertainty among voters," Binder said. "Nonetheless, this amendment from the state legislature looks doomed to fail."
A proposed amendment to the Florida Constitution requires at least 60% approval from voters to pass.
The University of North Florida said their poll was conducted from July 24-27 by their Public Opinion Research Lab. Click here for more on the results and methodology.
