WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — A new poll released Wednesday by Florida Atlantic University is giving us insight into how voters might be leaning with just three months until the November election.
The conductors of the poll said it reveals the "shifting tides of politics in Florida" while "highlighting significant gender, age and racial divides among likely voters."
MORE: Parsing the polls: How to judge the validity, credibility of political surveys
Harris vs. Trump: Who's leading in Florida?
Numbers from the poll show that former President Donald Trump still holds a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among Florida voters.
Among those polled, 50% support Trump while 47% back Harris. The pollsters said given this close margin it suggests that Florida's potential swing state status may return in the upcoming election.
The new numbers indicate that Harris has reduced the gap between Democratic and Republican presidential candidates among voters in Florida from an 8% deficit to just 3%. A similar poll in April found that President Joe Biden trailed Trump by 8% among likely Florida voters.
"The narrowing gap between Trump and Harris is consistent with the tightening we have seen in other states," FAU political science professor Kevin Wagner said. "If this trend holds, we may see a competitive race in Florida."
WATCH BELOW: Harris, Trump campaigns heat up
Who's voting for who? Also, what do Florida voters think about Tim Walz?
The poll showed that female voters in Florida favor Harris by 53% while Trump garners 43%. Among male voters, Trump leads with 56% compared to Harris at 39%. Harris leads among voters aged 18-49 with 50%, while Trump is favored by those aged 50 and over with 53%. Harris receives strong support from Black voters at 77%, while Trump captures 17%. The Hispanic vote is evenly split at 49% for both candidates.
"Kamala Harris restores the traditional base of the Democratic Party, which includes women, minorities, younger voters, and Democratic Party identifiers," FAU political science professor Dukhong Kim said. “While Donald Trump maintains his own established base."
Pollsters said that early returns in Florida suggest that voters liked the selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as Harris' running mate. Among the people who responded to the poll, 44% approve with 34% having a more negative view. About one-quarter of voters do not have a specific opinion on Walz, suggesting he has room to improve his name recognition among voters.
"So far, Tim Walz has been a help to Harris, but it's early and many voters are still learning about the Minnesota governor," Wagner said.
WATCH BELOW: Where do Harris, Walz stand on immigration?
Abortion, Recreational Marijuana Amendments
Besides the highly competitive race for the White House, two proposed amendments are making headlines. Amendment Four would reverse Florida's six-week abortion ban while Amendment 3 would legalize recreational marijuana in the Sunshine State.
New poll numbers from FAU show that both amendments currently fall short of meeting the 60% threshold needed to pass.
Abortion amendment: The poll said that 56% of voters support an amendment ensuring no law shall prohibit abortion before viability. The highest support was from Hispanics at 66%. For men, 54% were in support of the abortion amendment compared to 59% of women. Among Democrats, pollsters said 80% are in support of Amendment Four compared to 35% of Republicans while 59% of Independents are in support.
Recreational Marijuana: 56% of all voters support legalization with younger voters (18-49) showing the highest support at 69%, while only 47% of voters over 50 are in support of the amendment. Among men and women, 56% support the amendment, while 74% of Democrats are in support compared to 37% of Republicans and 63% of Independents.
"These results reflect a growing awareness of the constitutional amendments," FAU political science professor Luzmarina Garcia said. "In April, FAU polled on both initiatives and at that time these measures had 49% approval, which shows a gain of 7% over the last four months."
WATCH BELOW: How would legalizing marijuana impact justice system?
Will Sen. Rick Scott win reelection?
The FAU poll found that voters still favor giving Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott another term in Washington. Numbers show he leads Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 47% to 43% among likely voters.
"While Scott leads, there is increasing evidence that this race could be competitive in November," Wagner said.
How, when was this poll conducted?
The poll was conducted from Aug. 10-11, sampling 1,055 registered Florida voters aged 18 and older. FAU said the survey was administered in both Spanish and English using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and an online panel, ensuring a representative sample of the state’s voting population. While a specific margin of error cannot be assigned due to the online component, a poll of this size typically has a margin of error of +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level, with higher margins for subsamples. Click here for full methodologies.
