FLA. — Can Florida Republicans hold on to their supermajorities in the state legislature? Maybe.
The GOP nabbed those supermajorities in the House and Senate during 2022’s red wave. It allows them to override vetoes, approve taxing legislation more easily, change chamber rules, and pad votes on controversial bills.
Republicans will need to hold on to 80 of their 83 seats in the state House, and 27 of their 28 seats in the state Senate.
“I think the Senate is maintainable — I think the House is always a fight," said Florida GOP Chair Evan Power. "We won some seats that were pretty tough."
Power told us this week nothing is guaranteed, but still showed confidence that Republicans would have a successful election night up and down the November ballot. That included the party's chances of maintaining its iron grip on the legislature.
"With the performance we’re seeing out there — it’s an achievable goal," said Power. "And we continue to be able to govern the way that we campaigned, I think we’re going to continue to win races that— not necessarily that we shouldn’t win, but we’re going to win because of our performance.”
Speaking of that performance, Florida House Speaker Paul Renner (R-Palm Coast) told us recently it was key to keeping the party's margins in the legislature. He touted recent legislation Republicans championed during the last two years.
"We did things like major tax reduction, returning billions of dollars into the hands of working men and women and families," said Renner. "We had the Live Local bill which is addressing, in a powerful way, affordable housing. We've done things as best we can, despite the Biden Administration and the Federal Reserve.”
Those policies were bipartisan though, and Republicans will also have to own that six-week abortion ban. It was backed almost unanimously by the party. A plan to repeal it is now polling at 69% support.
“This is our time,” said the Chair of the Florida Democrats, Nikki Fried.
Fried was feeling emboldened about her party's chances this cycle. Their messaging hits the GOP on the very record it's using to campaign. Fried says Republican leadership has resulted in high property insurance, an affordability crisis, and fewer rights for women.
It comes as Florida Democrats, for the first time in recent history, have also fielded candidates for every legislative seat and Congress. Perhaps the biggest factor in a potential power grab is the recent injection of energy from Vice President Kamala Harris’ candidacy.
“They just needed that spark to ignite, and that's what we saw over the course of the week," said Fried. "So, I know that this is our time to show the country that Florida is in play. Florida is worth fighting for and that we are not going to take this moment for granted.”
While we have a bit to go before the start of the regular session, it's not that far away. The 60-day bill-making gauntlet starts on March 4th, 2025. It’ll last until at least May 2nd.
