MILWAUKEE — Former President Donald Trump has made his decision on his vice presidential pick and will be unveiling his choice Monday afternoon on the first day of the Republican National Convention, according to a person familiar with the plans.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum have both been informed that they are not Trump's pick, according to people familiar with their conversation, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity before the formal announcement.
That leaves Ohio Sen. JD Vance as the only known candidate on Trump's shortlist who has not received a call, though Trump has been known to throw curveballs and surprises.
Trump's pick is expected to be formally unveiled at the convention in Milwaukee late Monday afternoon just before being formally nominated.
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It remains unclear whether the assassination attempt on Trump Saturday at his Pennsylvania rally had changed the former president's thinking about his potential second-in-command. But he told Fox News Channel host Bret Baier in a call that he planned to make his pick Monday, the anchor said on air.
The roll call vote to nominate that person is expected to take place Monday, according to a person with direct knowledge of the schedule who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The person cautioned that Trump could always change his mind.
Trump had been said to have narrowed his list to three candidates, Vance, Burgum and Rubio, all of whom would bring different benefits and vulnerabilities.
Vance is perhaps most ideologically aligned with the former president and would energize his base. At age 39, he would add a millennial contrast to the older men at the top of their parties' tickets. But he has served in the Senate for less than two years.
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Burgum would have brought business acumen and a steady hand, though Trump has noted his signing of a highly restrictive abortion law could be a drawback.
Rubio is seen in the party as a respected voice on policy, and his background — as the son of Cuban immigrants and a Spanish speaker — could have helped Trump appeal to Latino voters. He could also have helped draw more moderate and establishment-minded voters and donors turned off by Trump's coarse rhetoric. But Rubio’s candidacy is complicated by the fact that he lives in Florida, like Trump, and would likely need to move.
Conversations in the last 10 days between Rubio and Trump’s campaign had focused on concerns about the residency issue and how they would work around both men residing in the same state, according to a person familiar with the private talks who insisted on anonymity to discuss them.
The Trump campaign wanted to make sure that it could be 100% sure that there would not be a protracted legal battle over the issue, and Rubio was unwilling to uproot his family, the person said.
After Saturday's shooting, Trump's choice carries considerably more gravity. If a bullet had struck just a little bit to the right, Trump likely would have been killed or seriously injured.
The close call puts in stark relief the significance of a position that is a heartbeat away from the presidency. Trump has repeatedly claimed that choosing someone who was qualified to take over as commander in chief was his top consideration for the role.
"You need somebody that can be good just in case, that horrible just in case," he said in an interview with "The Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Show" in May.
In an interview with Fox News’ Harris Faulkner taped hours before the Butler, Pennsylvania, rally, Trump was asked about how close he was to his VP pick and whether his decision-making would change if President Joe Biden steps aside.
"It's a very important position especially if something bad should happen," Trump said. "That's the most important, if something bad should happen."
He's talked about ‘The Apprentice’ — but for VP
Before the shooting, Trump had made clear that he wanted to dramatically reveal his pick at the convention, which he said would make it more "interesting" and "exciting."
"It's like a highly sophisticated version of 'The Apprentice,'" he quipped in a radio interview last week, referring to the show he once hosted that featured him firing contestants on camera.
Trump and convention organizers had said the RNC's schedule will go on as planned despite the shooting, with Trump writing on his social media site that he could not "allow a 'shooter,' or potential assassin, to force change to scheduling, or anything else.”
"In this moment, it is more important than ever that we stand United, and show our True Character as Americans, remaining Strong and Determined, and not allowing Evil to Win," he wrote.
He held meetings in the days before the shooting with the top contenders. All have submitted material, including bios and photographs, to convention organizers that can be used to prepare content if they're picked, according to people familiar with the conversations who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the secretive process.
The private meetings with Vance, Rubio and Burgum were first reported by ABC News.
Nothing was offered during the meetings, one of the people said.
There's some historical precedent for waiting until the convention
Trump waiting until the convention to choose a running mate is later than usual for recent cycles but is hardly unprecedented.
In 1980, Ronald Reagan negotiated with former President Gerald Ford for hours during the Republican convention in Detroit but settled on his former primary rival George H.W. Bush when those discussions collapsed. Reagan cut it so close that his decision came less than 24 hours before he formally accepted the GOP nomination.
Bush himself waited until the 1988 Republican convention in New Orleans before shocking many attendees — as well as some of the then-vice president’s own top advisers — by picking little-known Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle to be his No. 2, rather than a more established running mate.
Since then, though, the tradition has been to pick a running mate shortly before the candidate’s party’s convention opens.
In 2008, Arizona Sen. John McCain, looking for a way to reset his race against Democrat Barack Obama, picked little-known Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin shortly before the Republican convention opened in Minnesota. He got a bump in the polls that didn't last.
Biden, a Democrat, tapped then-California Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate six days before his party opened its convention, which was held mostly virtually due to the coronavirus pandemic. And Trump chose Indiana Gov. Mike Pence in the days before the 2016 Republican convention opened in Cleveland.
