Colorado State University (CSU) has revised its seasonal hurricane forecast, doubling the number of named storms and nearly doubling the number of major hurricanes they predict most years.
CSU's forecast for 2020 includes 24 named storms. That total includes 9 named storms that have already come and gone in the Atlantic so far this year (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias).
Between 1981 and 2010, the average total of named storms was 12.1.
Their prediction of major hurricanes (category 3 and above) is 5.
Between 1981 and 2010, the average total of major hurricanes was 2.7.
Researchers cite warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic and vertical wind shear that is well below average for the above-normal probability in predicted storms.
CSU anticipates that 2020 will have an additional 10 hurricanes, 15 named storms, and 5 major hurricanes.
Researchers say the probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140% of the long-period full-season average.
