WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Tropical Depression 19 strengthened into Tropical Storm Sara in the Caribbean on Thursday.
In some reassuring news for South Florida, WPTV First Alert Weather meteorologist James Wieland said the National Hurricane Center is calling for a weaker storm due to more land interaction.
WPTV First Alert Weather meteorologist Chris Sowers said Thursday evening that Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been flying in and out of the disturbance in the western Caribbean today and they've found an area of circulation with winds up to 40 mph. Just barely tropical storm strength!
But tropical storm, nonetheless. When you look at the satellite, even though the storm has strengthened, it looks like a raggedy mess. It's very unorganized and looks more like a broad area of low pressure than something tropical.
Sara is going to have a very difficult time strengthening over the next couple of days because of its close proximity to Honduras. There will be several hurdles that Sara will have to get through to even pose much of a risk to Florida. The first hurdle is the interaction with land, not once, but twice (Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula).
The second hurdle, assuming Sara survives the first, is moving over cooler waters in the Gulf of Mexico. You need water temperature of at least 80 degrees to maintain and strengthen.
The last hurdle will be a lot of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
The WPTV First Alert Weather team is cautiously optimistic with the recent models.
"The storm is not gonna be as strong or it's not gonna have the chance to get as strong as earlier runs of these models were suggesting the past few days," WPTV First Alert Weather meteorologist Jennifer Correa said.
Sara is still forecast to head into the Gulf of Mexico next week. However, it may be weaker as it may stay over land longer once it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.
Wieland said a farther south and then farther west track has been trending on the models since late Wednesday, and the NHC has continued to shift its track in that direction.
Tracking close to or over Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will not allow the storm to get terribly strong, and most models don't have it surviving by time it gets into the Gulf of Mexico.
There still could be some changes, but with the NHC jumping on board, this is a positive step. It's still a ways out, so we will stay cautiously optimistic.
However, some leftover remnant moisture will get swept our way next Wednesday and Thursday, and there will be higher rain chances in South Florida on those days.
Also, for those who like cooler weather, the latest long-range models have a big cool down for Thanksgiving through that weekend.
