Tropical storm Rafael is near Jamaica with max winds 60mph this morning. It is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves through the Cayman islands and western Cuba Tuesday and Wednesday then emerge into the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night.
As the storm moves further into the Gulf, conditions will start to become unfavorable and there should be some weakening before landfall(if any landfall) There's still a lot of uncertainty with the track once it gets into the Gulf.
On it's current track, south Florida will not see direct impacts, however, we will see some fringe effects as it will drag a tropical airmass over us which will increase rain chances and humidity the next few days. It will still stay windy too and we could see some tropical storm wind gusts Tuesday and Wednesday and early Thursday.
Local impacts include Rainfall totals 1-2" are possible but mainly in some isolated areas. Thunderstorms chances, Wind gusts 35-40mph are possible not directly associated with Rafael. Rough seas and some beach erosion possible.
We are also watching an area with a 20% chance for development behind Rafael, north of the islands. It is expected to move into the Bahamas Saturday then into south Florida on Sunday. Regardless of development, we will see wind and rain chances pick up on Sunday and Monday.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
