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Tropical Storm Rafael forms in Caribbean with winds of 45 mph

Tropical storm watch in effect for Lower Florida Keys including Key West
Tropical Storm Rafael, Nov. 4, 2024 at 4 p.m.
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WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday afternoon in the Caribbean and is expected to further strengthen into a hurricane in the coming days.

As of 4 p.m., Rafael has winds of 45 mph and is moving north at 9 mph.

As it approaches the western tip of Cuba early Wednesday, it could be a Category 2 hurricane before it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico late Wednesday.

Rafael

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica.

TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide

Rafael

Conditions will become more hostile in the Gulf, so some weakening is expected after that.

There is still some uncertainty in the end track, as models diverge greatly by the end of the week.

On this track, the storm will stay more than 300 miles away from us. However, it will pull a tropical air mass over us, so our rain chances and humidity will go way up starting on Election Day and going through Thursday.

"The thinking is that this is gonna stay just west of Florida. So that's good for us, right? This is looking positive for us," Correa said. "But we're still gonna stay windy for the next few days."

The last official day of hurricane season is Nov. 30.