Tropical Depression Four is tracking west-northwestward over Cuba Saturday morning. It will turn northwestward and then northward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico later Saturday afternoon.
The depression is forecast to strengthen as it moves over the Gulf waters and could become tropical storm Debby overnight or by Sunday morning.
Then the storm will head towards the Florida Big Bend region on Sunday night.
After landfall, weakening steering flow should cause the storm to slow down while it moves northeastward over parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia. Thereafter, the track forecast becomes highly uncertain as it is unclear whether the system will accelerate northeastward ahead or get left behind and meander over the southeastern U.S. or near the coast.
Heavy rainfall is expected for parts of the Sunshine State and coastal Southeast which can lead to flash flooding.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of west-central Florida and the Big Bend region, where hurricane conditions are possible late Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected farther south along Florida’s west coast, including the Tampa Bay area, and across the Dry Tortugas where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this ystem. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.
