WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Hurricane Rafael strengthened into a major Category 3 storm on Wednesday and sits about 200 miles off the coast of Key Largo this evening, moving away from the "Sunshine State." It is now back into Category 2 strength, reaching maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.
A sharp turn towards the west is expected shortly as it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
There could be a few showers overnight into Thursday and it will still be a bit breezy at times, but that should be it for us. The seas are still very rough right now because of the persistent gradient wind.
Expect gusts 15-25 mph overnight. As the gradient eases by the end of the week, the winds will settle down.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
The National Hurricane Center said Rafael will bring life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and flash flooding to parts of Cuba.
Rafael should stay hurricane strength while in the southern Gulf of Mexico. But as it moves north, it will encounter strong shear, dry air, and cooler waters. This will weaken it rapidly as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast.
On Rafael's current track, South Florida will not see direct impacts. However, we will see some fringe effects as Rafael will drag a tropical airmass over us which will increase our rain chances and humidity over the next few days. It will still stay windy, too, through at least Thursday.
We are also watching an area with a 30% increasing chance for development behind Rafael, north of the islands.
It is expected to move into the Bahamas on Saturday, then into South Florida on Sunday. Regardless of development or a named storm, we will see wind and rain chances pick up on Sunday and Monday.
