There are two areas of interest in the Caribbean that we are watching closely this weekend.
The first is near the Greater Antilles Islands with a low probability of any tropical development as it will fight over energy in the Caribbean with another area of interest.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
The other has a much higher probability of tropical development. We could like see a Tropical Depression form by early next week.
This will likely be our next named storm, Rafael.
There is a lot of uncertainty with this system, but some models are showing more agreement in the long run with it turning northwestward towards the Gulf.
What we expect is the area of low pressure to lift northward through the southwestern Caribbean and bring rain to parts of Hispaniola and Cuba.
Then it will likely drift into the Gulf of Mexico by next weekend.
As far as its track after it moves into the Gulf, the conditions aren't too favorable for further strengthening because of wind shear and cooler water temperatures.
We will continue to monitor the progression of these two systems.
