WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — When it comes to hurricane season, we know one thing for certain: Warm waters help fuel tropical systems. This year the ocean has been warmer than usual. So, what could that mean for the rest of this hurricane season?
That's where the experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration come in. They're using weather instruments like a "saildrone" to scan the ocean and atmosphere and use that data to forecast tropical cyclones.
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"They tell us the current conditions both of the ocean and the atmosphere," Dr. Gustavo Goni said. "And that is critical to know where we are. It's critical to know where we are headed too."
Goni is the principal investigator for NOAA's hurricane glider project.
So, what happens when the ocean temperatures start to rise?
"There is a flux of energy that is given by the heat contained in the ocean that goes from the ocean to the atmosphere," Goni said. "That is why hurricanes intensify when you have warm waters."
That was the case in 2020 when water temperatures were warmer than normal. We saw a record 30 named storms and seven major hurricanes.
But that's not always the case. Going back to 1987, ocean temperatures were above average, but there was only one hurricane.
So, what other factors impact tropical cyclone activity? All kinds, Goni said. Factors include the salinity of the ocean water, rainfall, Saharan dust and whether or not we're in an El Nino year, which we are right now.
Goni said regardless of these factors, the main takeaway is it's hurricane season and we always have to be alert.
"We have to keep in mind that it only takes one hurricane going through where you live to make it a bad season," Goni said.
