WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — We are just a few days away from moving into our last month of hurricane season.
However, there is still a favorable pattern in the Caribbean for tropical development over the next couple of weeks.
There isn't a tropical system there currently but conditions are favorable and models continue to suggest development in the Central Caribbean over the weekend.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
The National Hurricane Center is still giving a medium chance for development this weekend into next week.
Once that happens, we will have a better idea of where it may go.
As we get later into fall, there is increasing shear from cold fronts and winter-type systems that pick up in frequency as winter approaches. This favors a more north/northeast type track for systems over the Greater Antilles and then up into the Atlantic.
This also makes it less likely that a storm would maintain hurricane strength if it happens to move near Florida.
It is still far too early to determine if the area in the Caribbean will have any potential impact on our weather next week. However, one could sneak in between fall systems, so it's worth keeping an eye on.
Water temperatures still above average in Caribbean
For the rest of the season, this favorable pattern for tropical development will last a couple of weeks, so it is possible to get a couple of storms out of it.
Water temperatures have cooled quite a bit to below average around the state. However, they are still above average in the Caribbean and southern Bahamas, which is enough to develop and maintain tropical systems.
Tropical systems become less frequent the later we get into the year, as cold fronts and shear make development less likely. Hurricane season ends Nov. 30. However, hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic during every month of the year.
