WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Hurricane season is less than two months away, and we are looking at how water temperatures could affect the upcoming hurricane season.
La Niña has officially ended, and now we are transitioning to a neutral phase characterized by neither El Niño nor La Niña, but rather a state lying in the middle.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
We are expected to continue to be in this phase through the summer. There's even an above 50% chance that it will continue through the early fall season.
But there's a little bit of uncertainty about what this all means for hurricane season.
During La Niña, hurricane activity is increased. But with El Niño, the Atlantic hurricane season actually sees less activity.
Some forecasters, like Colorado State University, have already predicted an "above-normal" season.
Their forecast includes 17 named storms, nine of which are hurricanes and four of those are expected to become major hurricanes, which is above the average.
Sea surface temperatures are a big part of hurricane formation. Water temperatures are not yet sustained at 80 degrees in the Atlantic, which is the threshold for strengthening storms.
As we get closer to June 1, the waters are expected to get above 80 degrees, and we will have a better picture of what the season ahead will look like.
