WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center (NHC) had record-breaking accuracy in 2024 storm tracks.
The NHC released a preliminary storm forecast verification report for the Atlantic basin in 2024. The report details that 2024 had the least average distance errors for storm track forecasts from 120 hours out to 12 hours from landfall.
Further post-analysis reveals that the NHC forecast outperformed all of the individual models in 2024 and were more consistent, changing less from cycle to cycle, compared to the global models.
According to the NHC, the error has shrunk significantly over the years.
NHC has released preliminary highlights of our forecast performance in the Atlantic basin for 2024's tropical cyclones. We are still in the process of finalizing analyses of the storms, and the full verification report will be available later this spring.https://t.co/PJaD76r0WE pic.twitter.com/iY0xnZwJxn
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) February 24, 2025
For example, if the NHC predicted a landfall three days out near Tampa in 1990, the average error for that year would have stretched from Alabama to northern Cuba. In 2023, if you were to take the same predicted landfall three days out, the average error has shrunk to a diameter stretching from near Cedar Key to Sanibel Island.
The NHC started coming out with three-day tropical storm/hurricane track forecasts in the 1960s and five-day track forecasts in the 2000s.
There has been a significant drop in accuracy errors over time, but there is some variability from year to year.
The report noted that intensity forecasts were a challenge for 2024 and the average error was slightly higher than the past few years.
A more detailed final report, including forecasts for systems near the U.S. that had watches and warnings, is expected to come out in the spring.
